Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
